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thanks Alvin for the fast and helpful response (looking forward to my next weekend spent without any exam study and hopefully you can take a break...
Hi, 1. Appreciate if someone could confirm that an 'equivalent credit rating' (mentioned in Sept 2019 Q1(iii), copied below*) simply refers to an...
Hi, I celebrated the Easter weekend with some past paper practice but am left with 7 queries on the April 2020 and 2022 exams (even after...
Just saw similar question appeared in the April 2020 exam Q2(ii) where the Examiners answer and definitions of scenario& stress testing and...
Hi, Looking for a fellow student interested in exchanging SP9 past paper exam attempts between now and the April exam and giving feedback to each...
Probabilistic risk measures The Acted notes (pg 15) that VaR can be calculated using 3 approaches: empirical (or historical), parametric and...
Firstly, a huge thanks for all those tutors and individuals who respond helpfully on Acted forums to students' posts! It is an invaluable tool for...
Please ignore my revised Q3 (in message directly above) about calculating Kendall's Tau on page 16 of Acted notes. I now understand that always...
Thanks Alvin for your 3 answers. Q1: You wrote above that "'top down' stress-scenario tests ... differs from scenario analysis because it uses...
Hi, 3 questions on Chapter 15: 'Introduction to risk modelling': Page 20 of Acted notes says: Stress testing is similar to scenario or...
Thanks very much Alvin for all your helpful responses to my many posts. Two follow-up questions (A & B) on your above post: Question A: Seems...
Hi, (sorry me again; encourage other SP9 students to also post their Qs as this isn't my private forum!) Appreciate any answers to six Questions...
Core reading (CMP chapter 9, pg 5) defines: "Risk capacity: this is the volume of risk that an organisation can take as measured by some...
adding another question on this Chapter (11) and thanks in advance for any answers: 3. Page 15 (section 1.12: 'the general public) writes that...
Hi, Two quick questions on Chapter 11: Page 7 of the Acted notes says: "Bank customers’ risk appetites are closely aligned with those of...
Hi, (To atone for the recent lull in posts) I have 4 comments and questions on Chapter 12 of the CMP and the related textbook reading. Appreciate...
Hi, I suitably have 3 questions on the 3 lines of defence approach. Q1: What is the main benefit and intent of this approach to risk management...
For (ii), this is explained at the bottom of page 9 of the S&P note and relates to the increased model risk as a result of using these models to...
Thanks very much Alvin. The Australia/New Zealand standard (AS/NZS 4360:2004) appears almost identical to the Actuarial control cycle and presume...
Have two basic questions on the Core Reading/Acted notes for Chapter 7 -thanks in advance!: Pages 12 and 17 lists limitations of the S&P approach...
Having read the Acted notes and Sweeting reading, I'm left scratching my head as to: 1. What is the main takeaway from this chapter (6) -simply,...
Thanks Steve. Related question about the B-F method and the past exam mentioned above. Part (ii) of CM2B April 2021 Question 4 asks to comment...
Found it interesting &annoying! to see from past papers that examiners use the terms ((behavioural patterns, biases and heuristics)...
@Jen L -you may find this 2-page doc helpful CM2 Guidance for Candidates sitting the September 2020 examination.pdf (actuaries.org.uk) The CM2...
Thanks for the very fast response. Of course probabilities of default are related to the fortune of the company since they are derived from...
Page 7 of the Acted Notes (section: Approaches to modelling Credit Risk) quotes the Core Reading: "Structural models are explicit models for a...
would recommend Acted Classroom as an alternative to tutorials -have found them far clearer than the Chapter notes and walk you through answers...
The penultimate line of the solution to Assignment X2.4(ii) jumps from: E[Bt^4] + 6t*E[Bt^2] +3t^2 to: 3t^2 + 6t*t +3t^2 = 12t^2. Trying to...
@Jen L -An Acted tutor advised me to just ignore that section. The Acted notes for Chapters 9-11 need a complete revamp (in my humble opinion) as...
Thanks @CapitalActuary -understand now that when comparing the expression, E[exp(tX)] to E[exp-(2mu*Wt)], X=Wt and t=-2mu. Just finding the...
The solutions in Acted notes to Chapter 9 Practice Question 9.1(ii) uses the MGF of a normal distribution, M(t) = exp(mu*t+0.5*sigma^2*t^2)...
Thanks very much Alvin. Two further questions to make sure i understand: Q4: Are all (i) irrational behavioural patterns, (ii) flawed heuristics...
Thanks again for your helpful answers. Three additional questions: Q1: Is there a clear distinction between a behavioural pattern (eg...
On reflection, a simple answer to Question 2 is that disproving semi-strong EMH automatically disproves strong EMH (since if markets don't auto...
Hi, Three Questions on the section about Shiller's test of the semi-strong form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH): 1. This CT8 post: Ch1...
And please explain these criticisms of Shiller's methodology (page 12 of notes): "1) the choice of terminal value for the stock price 2) the use...
couldn't one argue that it also contradicts the strong form of EMH - since insiders (eg Directors) may know future dividends (in the same way that...
What does 'systematically get it wrong in the same way' mean -that Shiller's discounted dividend model always overestimated the price of each...
Hi, The Examiners Report (April 2022 Paper One Q1) includes that: an outcomes-based "regime is not normally considered suitable for developing...
and Q1viii (Suggest how TT could raise additional capital if needed) would arguably better suit a 'Discuss' command verb since the mark scheme...
Thanks very much, Lindsay. Any idea why April 2022 Paper Two Q1(i) asks: "Discuss why TT may have decided to only offer this single product." yet...
TLDR: Yes, agree with you. [But I'm only a humble, fellow student] Presume you're referring to the Paper One Q: "The scheme managers are...
Thanks very much for your helpful responses! So i guess in your example of spurious selection, regions X and Y are equally close to hospitals,...
Hi, I am repeatedly confused by what 'selection' and 'selective effect' actually mean in CP1. Chapter 20 of the CMP notes (page 14) says: "..we...
For your 1st question: unaware of any format tips [besides structuring longer answers into sections (eg. ads vs disads, or by stakeholder etc) and...
my 1st time taking CP1 so i can tell how it is going for me (not how it should be!) -similarly started past papers which is a great position to be...
Hi, I found two parts of this section on page 8 difficult to follow, given my lack of pricing experience. 1) "It is important in building such a...
Thanks Steve. For 2) does the provider of an integrated risk cover ('IRC') offer risk management services in addition to reinsurance -or does the...
Hi, Two quick questions on chapter 29, page 22 re. Integrated Risk Covers: 1. "They are used to avoid buying excessive cover" -Is this because...
You're right, @Capital Actuary if it gives two marks in an exam, i won't complain about any duplication :-) Thanks very much for your...
Sorry my previous message appears a mess &forum no longer allows me to edit and clear it up. Also, I've now seen that this section of Core...
Thanks Helen for the example. I'm still confused why these two are separate risks _the point for both your examples is that they're calculating a...
To update: CP1 Exams format: 2 x computer-based exams (Word), 3 hours and 20 minutes each Actuarial Practice (CP1) | Institute and Faculty of...
Firstly, respect to you for your perseverance with taking exams! Many would've given up awhile ago so incredible that you're humble enough to take...
Page 6 of the notes (Chapter 17 Modelling) says when listing potential operational issues: A range of methods of implementation should be...
Thanks very much Richie -two follow-up questions on part 2. How do Guaranteed income bonds (or annuities for that matter) meet the "key features...
Chapter 15 page 19 (top) quotes the core reading: "Unless risk-free zero-coupon bonds can be used it is rarely possible to achieve pure matching,...
Hi, The solution to Question 14.2 (i) (page 27) mentions several specific quantitative assertions: "Suppose that the distribution of liability...
Hi, The April 2023 exam dates are available here: Exam Dates (actuaries.org.uk)
Actually i've just realised that: 1) RM must just be the same as R_M (which is the same as EM = the expected return on market portfolio, and also...
Hi -grateful if you can answer my query on the same question (Sep 2021, Paper A, Q5(i)): The 2nd line of the Examiner Report solution (bottom...
Thanks Mark. A related Q to your post: CM2 Paper B Apr 2021 Q3(ii) asks "Construct, for each year, the 1-year transition rate matrix". Having...
Thanks Steve -didn't work for me (either generate an Excel error (pic attached[IMG] or other amounts of Puts, such as +1159) since there's nothing...
I can't follow how to derive the portfolio in part (vi) of -1000 calls and 2296 puts. (The IFoA solution spreadsheet doesn't provide any insight;...
Thanks very much Steve - for segregation/segmentation, does 'relevant' just mean 'readily available' (ie. the item price which is displayed...
Hi, I have a specific and general question on this topic: 1) Specific - Please can you provide examples of the 'acceptance' and 'segregation'...
Thanks Steve for explaining what the phi(x)dx and phi(y)dy terms represent. I have one clarification question on your response and two additional...
Hi -thanks to @CapitalActuary for simple explanations above. Two related questions on filtrations from the end of that Chapter: Question 1: Page...
Hi, Q21.8 is using the inflation adjusted chain ladder method. For step 1 (applying past inflation factor to incremental data), the solution (pg...
Hi - Appreciate answers to either or both of the quick queries below on Chapter 18 term structure of interest rates: 1) pg 13 introduces "a bank...
Thanks Steve -have 2 follow-up questions to this historic answer. Q1: Your answer helps me intuitively understand the discounting, St and K terms...
Hi, The Chap 3 notes offer alternative explanations for first and second-order stochastic dominance. On the first line of pg 6 it explains that "Z...
thanks allot for your helpful answer. I have two additional but separate questions on this Chapter: 1) Pg 31 of Acted notes (section 7.2 -Finding...
Hi, The first question on pg 5 (Chap 2 course notes) asks to calculate the expected next-period utility when there's only a proportion, 'a' of...
Thanks very much Dave - i had interpreted the approximation to mean that for the Sept 21 question, i could simply take the Kaplan-Meier survival...
Thanks John -why does a dependence on past values make it 'convenient' -because its easier to calculate and update over time? Appreciate you...
Hi, Quick question: The Core Reading for Time Series (Chapter 13, pg 37 in 2019 version) says: "In many circumstances an autoregressive model is...
Hi, Sept 2021 Question 7(iii) provides a 'first Yule Walker' equation and asks students to provide the 'second and third Yule Walker' equations....
Hi, The Question provides the Nelson-Aalen estimate of the Survival function and asks to determine the Kaplan-Meier estimate. The Examiners...
Thanks very much Andy and 'CapitalActuary' for extremely helpful answers and offer to elaborate. Interested to know what you mean by the 'the...
Hi, Having been through Chapter 17 on Copulas, have three basic questions on the coefficient of upper&lower tail dependence: Question 1 - The...
Hi, I really appreciate the appendix explaining Eigen values. But Found it difficult to understand the core reading and provided examples in...
Hi, The solution to Q14.3(i) (at end of Chapter 14 Time Series 2, in the 2019 version of material) mentions the two criteria to determine the...
I haven't passed it myself yet so welcome exam advice from the experts :) But to help you cope with amount of study, suggest: 1) Remember its an...
Hi , Understand that the Coefficient of Lower and Upper Tail dependencies is a probability between 0 and 1 to reflect the degree of positive...
Hi, Would someone mind explaining (in the basic Lee Carter model) what is the difference between 'bx' (change in rates at age x due to time trend)...
In case not already seen, the IFoA says: The CS2A examination paper will contain a similar number and overall style of question to past papers,...
Hi, 1) Answer to PQ 7.4(i) says that "Non-informative censoring is present since withdrawals give no information about the future mortality of...
Thanks Calm and Aisha. A related question: The solution for Q1.7 uses the fact that (0,t) and (t,t+s) are non-overlapping time periods. But why...
Hi, I have two questions on Q20.6: For part Q20.6 (ii) why is the summation of probability, q, necessary for all i's (from 1 to 500)? If...
Hi, Is it acceptable to sue bullets to answer the reflection/ follow-up questions after the main 90-mark report/letter. I'm finding it takes me...
Chapter 14 Time Series 2: top line of Pg 24 would someone mind elaborating on how the log-likelihood function is calculated (especially where the...
Hi, hopefully a straightforward questions about the CMP material: Chapter 13 Time Series 1 : solution to Practice Q 13.3 (on pg 61) includes on...