Sept 2017 Q7 ii

Hi everyone,

I'm not sure how I can obtain the revised % developed and CDF.

These are the steps I'm taking and please let me know where I've gone wrong:-
1. Estimate independent ultimate based on IELR
2. Take incurred claim as a proportion of the independent estimate. This will be the % developed
3. Assume that youngest year is half as developed as y1 factor. So divide 22% by 2 = 11%
4. Then assuming that claim development is uniform between development years. I take the average of 22% and 41% which gives me 31%. (22% and 41% are the % developed for years 2016 and 2017 respectively). However, this does not tally with 34.7% in the solutions.

Any advice would really be appreciated, thanks for your help in advance!

 

thanks very much for your quick response.

The steps I'm taking now is as follows and please let me know where I've gone wrong:-
1. Assume that youngest year is half as developed as y1 factor. So divide CDF of 4.55 by 2 = 2.28
2. Then assuming that claim development is uniform between development years. I take the average of 4.55 and 2.11 which gives me 3.33. (4.55 and 2.11 are the CDFs for years 1 and 2respectively). I do the same for the remaining CDFs
3. Then develop incurred claims to ultimate and determine the % developed

However, I still can't seem to get the correct % developed by following the above approach and any insights would really be helpful

Thanks in advance for your help!

 

Thanks! With your help i've managed to obtain the revised CDFs.

However, I'm now stuck at obtaining both the UY ULR and AY ULR. Would you be able to guide me on these?

Appreciate your advice and thanks in advance for your help!